Dangerous Dan

There's a bunch of noise being made about the Saints returning to New Orleans, but I'm still not holding my breath. Terry Bradshaw (who's never turned down appearing in a commercial) is talking about getting a group together to buy the team so as to ensure it stays put. There's also this:

But last week, Benson agreed to move back two crucial deadlines in the team's Louisiana Superdome lease with the state. An attorney for the Superdome, Larry Roedel, said this week that moving the deadlines all but guaranteed the Saints will play a 2006 schedule in Louisiana. He added that he has received assurances to that effect from the NFL, although the NFL has yet to confirm that publicly.

He might be right about 2006, but there are no assurances for any season beyond that. The NFL is renegotiating some contractual deadlines, but they only extend the Saints' stay for a year.

The agreed upon contractual change would push back from Nov. 27 a provision giving the Saints the option to break their contract with the state because the Superdome was not fit for football after being damaged by Hurricane Katrina. That deadline has been pushed back to Jan. 15, 2007.

The change would also extend a March 31, 2006, deadline in the current agreement that gives the Saints the right to move to another city after this season by paying back $81 million in direct subsidies the team received from the state during the first four years of a 10-year, $186.5 million deal signed in 2001. That date has been extended by one year to March 31, 2007.

I think the NFL is committing to the city for another season and is betting on New Orleans to be in too bad a shape to support the team after that (and which will be proved by that one season in New Orleans), at which point they'll use the excuse to send the franchise elsewhere. This way the league and Saints owner Tom Benson don't come out as quite the bad guys for stripping the stricken city of its team. They still have a legal out, though, and can plausibly claim they stayed to see how things went and only are leaving in 2007 because of economic forces.

So where would they go in 2007?

It's looking like Los Angeles. Coincidentally, the NFL has just reached a preliminary agreement with L.A. officials to bring a team back to the country's second largest market and have it play in the Coliseum. Or maybe at the Rose Bowl or a new proposed facility in Anaheim. What's more, NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue is playing coy about what team will occupy the digs.

But Tagliabue, in a 15-minute session with reporters on the steps of City Hall, didn't identify a potential tenant or speculate when Los Angeles might get the team.
…
"I think the critical thing now is we're at the point where it's recognized, certainly by us, that the time is right," Tagliabue said. "We have to get agreements finalized. We'll be pursuing agreements in Anaheim. We're going to work with both communities for an agreement."

The time is right and they have to get agreements finalized? What's the hurry?

He said there have been no in-depth discussions on whether the region would get an expansion or existing team.

Tagliabue said last month that future expansion was unlikely anywhere but Los Angeles.

Sure, an expansion team, right. Apparently Bernie Parks didn't Tags' memo to play it cool:

City Councilman Bernard Parks said after listening to Tagliabue that he believes the Coliseum will eventually get an existing team rather than an expansion team.

"The NFL is going to have a say on who's going to come here. The Coliseum has no role in selecting a team," Parks said.

Asked when it might happen, Parks replied: "I don't know. Nobody's signed anything. They've got to say they're coming."

That being said, Parks expressed optimism.

"In my judgment, I don't believe these business people waste their time and money," he said. "They've spent a lot of time and money."

Of course, just about any team could make the leap to L.A., it doesn't have to be the Saints. The Saints, though, are in the best position for the move since they are otherwise committed to an economically and demographically stunted region. To my knowledge, no other owners are currently so unhappy with their present arrangements that they're agitating to leave.

So if we put the pieces together – insider NFL officials previously told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that the Saints will permanently move to L.A.; a deal for a team in L.A. is reached; an L.A. councilman says it will likely be a current team moving in; Taglibue dodges the question; the Saints are in flux; and the league is pushing back deadlines that would keep the Saints in New Orleans for just one more year (1 year and 10 months from now is plenty of time to get the stadium situation in L.A. ironed out) – the signs point towards the L.A. Saints.

True, this is purely speculation, but when the evidence is assembled, it certainly seems to be a reasonable conclusion.

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