The Face of Egyptian Democracy
While I think it's a positive sign that Hosni Mubarak felt compelled to allow other candidates on the Egyptian presidential ballot for the first time in 24 years, I've never had any illusions about who would win or whether the election would be fixed. It's foolish to think a man who has held firm dictatorial control of a country for 24 years would seriously risk losing that control through an open democratic process. Mubarak is now giving us a good look at what his version of democracy entails and it's likely the first real step in what will be his eventual downfall. When activists gathered to hold a demonstration yesterday in Cairo's most prominent square, they were quickly beaten by police and "government supporters," i.e. Mubarak thugs. Fortunately, no one died, but the demonstrators were clubbed, kicked, punched, and had clothes ripped off them.
The government, of course, is saying it won't happen again, which is what they also said after a similar incident in May. Mubarak is clearly intent on violently punishing those who publicly oppose him and making examples out of demonstrators as warnings to others. There is an upside to this, though. The fact that people are willing to demonstrate against Mubarak despite the consequences is a positive sign. Also, that Mubarak is violently suppressing these demonstrations indicates that he feels threatened by reformers, which in turn means that the reformers have more power and momentum than anybody in the government will officially attest to.
Mubarak will fix the September elections, and, like most dictators who like the sham veneer of an overwhelming democratic mandate, will inflate his margin of victory beyond what is at all reasonable. This will only create further resentment among the populace and strengthen the hand of the reformers. We'll see how this plays out, but I think Mubarak is futilely trying to stand against a democratic tide in the Middle East.




